The Presidential Race in 08 - Hillary vs. X
Copyright © 2006/2007 by Jay B. Gaskill
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Jay B. Gaskill
July, 5, 2007
The Presidency 08
It's the Republican's to Take, Hillary's to Lose
Here's how it looks to me right now.
Senator Hillary Clinton is succeeding against Barack Obama without having to go negative. This is the triumph of organization and yes, a bit of ruthlessness, over charisma and idealism. The polls continue to show Mrs. Clinton's negatives as the highest of any candidate in the race from either party, always in the high 40's, always close to her equally strong positives. This is why the mainline democrats, the ones who prefer winning to ideological purity, remain worried about her candidacy.
If the Republicans had a clear winner, a charismatic, experienced candidate untainted by Mr. Bush, the race would be theirs to lose.
Is that person America's mayor, Rudy Giuliani? The same pollsters give Mr. Giuliani strong positives and weak negatives among general voters, but disclose a certain dyspeptic unease among traditional republicans who have trouble relating to his socially liberal, urban roots.
How about Mitt Romney? Republicans, for the most part are ideologically reassured, in spite of the former Massachusetts governor's epiphany (or flip – take your choice) on the abortion/right to life issues. But he seems to be slipping in the polls, though not as badly as is Senator (“Don't call me charismatic, damnit”) John McCain.
Fred Thompson, lawyer, former senator, actor, is on the rise largely because he is an attractive blank slate to most potential voters, just as John Edwards was in the early days. We voters love to project all our hopes on the new, emerging, attractive figure. We tend to like them better the less details we have.
Here is my prediction:
Clinton will be the democratic nominee, unless there is a campaign gaffe that her team is so far too professional to commit.
The republicans can win the general election only with a candidate that earns the enthusiastic support of the “base” but isn't so ideologically out of the center that swing voters are put off.
As of today, Mr. Giuliani runs well against Mrs. Clinton in several polls (one point ahead in the June Gallup and Rasmussen polls) but several points behind in the Newsweek and CNN polls.
It would be a very close race, and republicans are worried because, even in New York, several polls show Hillary defeating Rudy. [This is particularly bad news for America’s mayor, because California belongs to Clinton.]
And the trend would be troubling to them as well. An earlier Rasmussen poll (March) showed Sen. Hillary Clinton running behind Rudy 49% to 41%.
In the very latest result, Rasmussen’s national telephone has Hillary tied with Fred Thompson 45% each.
This is one of those rare races in which the republican political convention could be a decisive, election determining event.
Stay tuned...
JBG
