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What Will Obama
Become?
[This article follows, “Who is Obama?” at http://www.jaygaskill.com/WhoIsObama.htm .]
A piece in the UK Telegraph, “Does Obama want to win in
2012?” (
Here is the link:
And here are three pull quotes:
Almost everything
Obama does these days suggests that he doesn't care much about being
re-elected. Strange as it might seem, perhaps he wants to be a one-term
president.
[][][]
Obama does not
suffer for self doubt. He has long seemed so convinced of his own virtue that
to question his motives is illogical. Increasingly, his pronouncements carry
the tone of one who believes those who disagree are stupid or bigoted.
[][][]
His presidential
bid had been based on the power of his life story and his ability with the spoken
word. Doubtless he was as surprised as anyone else that he pulled it off.
Governing has been altogether more difficult for him and there are signs he is
already tiring of it.
The article goes on, implying that Mr. Obama may not even choose to run for reelection.
Whether this assessment is correct is beside the point: It rings sufficiently true that it is beginning to shape the political reality in the Democratic Party. As this picture of Mr. Obama as an early lame duck begins to gain traction (this article is but one of several signs of that), he becomes a sitting duck for Democratic as well as Republican opposition. This is what you can expect to see within the next 14 months:
In stage one, Democrat-party affiliated elected officials and their appointed, but election-dependent counterparts, will quickly sort themselves into:
a. The go-down-with-the-ship crowd;
b. The quietly-jump-ship group (note the rumors that Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel will depart later this year);
c. The “who, me?” crowd that tries to get some political distance from the sinking ship (already evident among panicky Democrat incumbents who must face voters this November).
In stage two, active opposition will emerge within the ranks of the Democratic Party:
a. Formerly
loyal donors will find other races besides Mr. Obama’s reelection campaign to
fund (Mr. Obama’s apparent hostility to
b. Pressure will mount for the president to “make clear his intentions” in time for someone else to mount a credible presidential campaign;
c. As the trend gains momentum, Mr. Obama will be taken on (and very likely defeated) in an early presidential primary.
This last scenario, if it plays out, eerily echoes LBJ’s last year in office.
Stage two has already begun.
Many of the rumors about Mr. Obama formerly associated with the fringe right are being quietly and covertly promoted by the Democratic center. Not a word of protest is being heard from the Clintons and their surrogates, for example, when this president’s national security judgment and Islamic biases are being questioned. The Los Angeles Times, ever a democratic newspaper, is beginning floating critical stories about the president that would have been deeply buried a year ago. If my suspicions are right, we will see many more critical stories and reports in the so called mainstream media over the next few months. If this happens, it will be the result of a “green light” from key Democratic backers and fundraisers.
If the current trends
continue, someone is very likely to take on this sitting president from within
his own party.
Who?
Mr. Obama has wisely “contained” Hillary Clinton in a renewed
Another politician to watch:
If I were close to Mr. Obama, I’d begin to get nervous if Meg Whitman
falters and Jerry Brown becomes the next
Politics is
Stay tuned.
Jay B Gaskill
The author is a
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