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Print Version LINK: http://jaygaskill.com/TenMiracles.htm
DON’T WORRY, BE HAPPY…
TEN POLITICAL
MIRACLES
An exercise for the politically bored
For purposes of this exercise, let me pose a working definition of the modern “miracle”. This one doesn’t require a suspension of the laws of nature, just a suspension of cynical fatalism about the future:
Miracles are those unexpected, benign rescues, turning points or transformations
that seem like the answer to a prayer, but are so highly improbable that they
eerily locate themselves outside the realm of mundane luck.
Political miracles are always difficult to recognize because,
inevitably, lots and lots of decent minded people are earnestly praying for two
utterly inconsistent outcomes. It takes
the reflective distance of history and a godlike perspective to figure out
which outcome was or would have been better.
In a sense, the political rise of Barack Obama was miraculous, all things considered, but his election to POTUS would not be. Recall that miracles are “so highly improbable that they eerily locate themselves outside the realm of mundane luck”. Obama’s campaign is one of those well planned, super-funded and brilliantly executed efforts that, in his case, has succeeded beyond all expectations: By any measure, Barack Obama is on the very precipice of a resounding victory. A likely outcome is not a miracle.
THE MIRACLE
LIST ONE THROUGH FIVE
Given those circumstances, here is my list of the First Five Miracles:
1. Obama, as president, defies
expectations and tacks resolutely to the pro-life side of the abortion dispute,
opposing – even vetoing – any newly proposed repeal of the partial birth
abortion ban.
2. Obama, as president, defies expectations
and tacks resolutely to the pro-free speech side of the dispute, blocking –
even vetoing - the selective application of the so called fairness doctrine to
conservative talk radio.
3. Obama, as president,
defies expectations and tacks resolutely to the anti-jihad side, drawing a line
in the sand against militant Iranian adventurism and Hezbollah’s terrorist
agenda.
4. Obama, as president,
defies expectations and tacks resolutely to the pro-Israel side, promising to destroy
any regime or terrorist subgroup that launches a deadly attack on our most
steadfast ally in the
5. McCain comes from behind
and wins the general election this Tuesday.
MY PREMATURE PROPHETIC GIFT
Anyone who
attempts to predict anything of a political nature, needs to cultivate humility. To err, after all, is the lot of the amateur
prophet.
I posted
these predictions on
BACK THEN, I SAID:
“Even exit
polls aren’t perfect. Those who talk to
pollsters after just having voted are more likely to be partisans. The non partisans are less inclined to talk.
Recall President Bush’s win against John Kerry where network pollsters were
misled during the voting to expect a democratic win.
“The overriding problem is that a
significant block of voters can and do make their final decision, especially in
a close race, at the last possible minute.
This is
particularly true when a voter is leaning to a candidate nominated by his or
her same party, but harbors misgivings.
“Polls
show that roughly the same number of voters in each party are firmly behind
their nominee. This means that a
significant number of voters in each party are up for grabs. Right now it appears that about 40% of the
voters are essentially committed to Obama and 40% to McCain, plus or minus 2%.
Yes, this is a crude estimate, but it means that the election will be decided
by about 20% of the voters, roughly half of whom will make up their minds in
the last few days, many even on the last hours, and some only in the privacy of
the polling booth at the last minute.”
NOW I SAY (cautiously and
humbly):
A distinct trend is in play –
Obama, though still in the lead, is losing support and the gap between the two
candidates is closing to within the margin of error.
THEN I SAID:
“There is
always movement in the last week or so of the campaign. Sometimes it merely cuts into a large lead,
sometimes it reverses the outcome.
“I am now
willing to make three predictions:
(1) Unless and until Obama gets a durable breakout lead
(something exceeding 5%) within a couple weeks following the republican
convention, this race will be a toss up in early October.
(2) If the candidates are very close (within a couple of
points of each other) in the last week of October, Obama will almost
certainly lose.
(3) Even if Obama is ahead by only 4 points going into the
last few days of the election, Obama will lose unless somehow he is gaining
momentum at that point.
“I make
these predictions on the basis that Obama probably has peaked. If that
assessment is true, time is his enemy.”
NOW I (HUMBLY) SAY:
All of the
major polls show a trend in McCain’s favor, but few of them as yet evidence a
trend slope so steep that Obama’s commanding lead will likely evaporate in just
60 hours. THAT would
take a miracle.
Here are
my favorite three polls at the moment:
THE PROPHETS ARE CAUTIOUS
IBD
TIPP
ZOGBY:
RASMUSSEN OB 51 Mac 46 (omits or allocates undecided)
Notes:
From Zogby:
“Almost two days worth of
the polling -- or about half of the current sample in the three-day rolling
poll of likely voters nationwide, was conducted after Obama's 30-minute
commercial aired Wednesday evening. There is no evidence it helped him, as he
has dropped 1.1 points in the last two days, while McCain has gained 0.8 points
during the same period.
“The three-day average holds steady, but McCain
outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead
among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened
his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR
voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among
women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying
the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain
picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate
Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in
this rolling average. But for now, hold on."
From Rasmussen:
“Not surprisingly, the number of persuadable
voters has declined sharply as Election Day draws near. Forty-seven percent
(47%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and won’t change
their mind. Forty-three percent (43%) say the same about McCain. Six percent
(6%) have a preference for one of the major party candidates but could change
their mind, 2% plan to vote for a third party option and 2% remain undecided.
“It is impossible to overstate the importance
of Obama's tax cut promise to his current lead in the polls. Thirty-one percent
(31%) of voters now believe that their taxes will go down if Obama is elected.
Only 11% believe that will happen if McCain wins.”
THE REST OF MY LIST OF TEN MIRACLES
6. During
the first term of the new president, your taxes will go down and stay down.
7. The
national mediacrats will become ideologically evenhanded and non partisan.
8. Our
country will not be engaged in any major military activity.
9.
American industrial manufacturing will grow.
10. You
will be happily voting for the same candidate in the 2011 presidential election
that you now favor in 2008.
///
Don’t worry. Be happy….
JBG